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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-10-02T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-02T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27173/-1
CME Note: Extremely faint CME with uneven front seen to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and COR2A. Source is very uncertain but one low confidence candidate is an area of very subtle dimming seen at 2023-10-02T16:54Z in SDO AIA & GOES SUVI 195 spanning from about N05E22 to N05E00(AR 13453) down to S10E00. Centered at about S05E10. This dimming is possibly associated with a C-class flare and small eruption from AR 13450 (S10E07) seen starting at 2023-10-02T15:54Z. A possible weak arrival starts around 2023-10-05T21:25Z and is characterized by rapid increase in wind speed from 430 to 490 km/s, some gradual increase in magnetic field strength from 5 to 9 nT, density increase from 3 to 14 particles/cc, and relatively small decrease in temperature. Field rotations follow around 2023-10-0617:00Z; there is a small increase in GOES >1 MeV channel at the same time that seems to support a CME arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-05T21:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-06T06:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-10-03T01:08Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 445
Longitude (deg): 3S
Latitude (deg): 14E
Half-angular width (deg): 28

Notes: Low confidence fit to available imagery
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 34.03 hour(s)
Difference: -8.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-10-04T11:23Z

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